Summary
As the number of reported cases of COVID-19 exceeds 250 million globally and deaths exceed 5 million, there is growing awareness and concern about those who suffer long-term conditions which appear to be associated with the virus. These long-term conditions are likely to impose a large burden on the healthcare system and require careful examination and understanding. However, the breadth of these conditions and their incidence remains unclear.
The objective of the research reflected in this report is to quantify the magnitude of patients with post-COVID-19 conditions based on analysis of medical open claims data and a review of the growing body of literature globally. The research also models the potential demand for medicines required to treat these patients with the post-COVID conditions, even as optimal treatment for these patients is currently based on existing therapeutics.
Key Findings
- While there are multiple definitions of post-COVID conditions, it generally refers to an umbrella term for the wide range of physical and mental health consequences that are present after at least four weeks of infection with SARS-CoV-2.
- Despite a growing volume of research, post-COVID conditions remain insufficiently studied, with a lack of consensus on the definition, epidemiology, underlying causes, and effective therapeutics and treatment strategies for patients.
- Based on IQVIA U.S. medical open claims data as of June 2021, at least 22% (2.2 million) of the 9.7 million COVID-19 tagged patients in the database had one or more conditions (newly diagnosed or persistent) even after 90 days since their COVID-19 diagnosis.
- The organ systems most frequently affected by these post-COVID conditions as per the claims data include central nervous, cardiovascular, and respiratory systems.
- Using a global modelling approach and considering the total population diagnosed with COVID-19, at least 104.6 million newly diagnosed conditions were estimated among the reported COVID-19 survivors as of September 15, 2021. If undiagnosed cases are considered, this number would rise to at least 167.3-334.6 million conditions, assuming a factor of 3.2 undiagnosed cases for every 1 reported case in the U.S. and 50% of this factor as a conservative estimate.