1. Global OTC Market Stabilizes After Previous Highs

As 2025 progresses, the global OTC market is stabilizing after a period of significant growth. This shift in market dynamics, influenced by factors like slowing inflation and a milder flu season, presents a pivotal moment for industry leaders. It calls for strategic reassessment focused on innovation and operational efficiency to stay ahead in a changing landscape.

Figure 1: Global OTC Market Performance MAT Q3 2020 – MAT Q3 2024. (Source: IQVIA Consumer Health Global OTC Insights)

The latest data shows a modest increase in the size of the global OTC market to $32bn, as the growth rate slowed to 1.4% in the year to the end of Q3 2024. Reviewing data from the 2024/25 flu season, it’s clear that various factors, including warmer weather, demographic shifts, and regional variances, have shaped the current market dynamics. This blog delves into the implications of these shifts and provides strategies for businesses to adapt effectively to evolving market conditions.

2. Regional Variances in Performance

In the year to the end of Q3 2024, EMEA (Europe, the Middle East, and Africa) continued to lead the OTC market with a value sales growth rate of 6.7%. However, regional disparities remain pronounced. APAC (Asia-Pacific) saw a decline of 2.3%, while North America experienced a decrease in value by 1.8%. Meanwhile, Latin America demonstrated resilience with modest growth at 0.9% during broader market stabilization.

Figure 2: Global OTC market performance broken down by regional share and value sales growth in EMEA, APAC, North America and LATAM - MAT Q3 2024. (Source: IQVIA Consumer Health Global OTC Insights)

3. Decongestants & Expectorants Drive Global Category Performance

Analysing performance by category sheds light on the market’s resilience amidst fluctuating conditions. In the year to the end of Q3 2024, the slowdown in cold and flu remedies, which saw a decline of 0.7%, has impacted overall market growth. Despite this, decongestants and expectorants have emerged as key drivers, with robust growth rates of 5.7% and 2.7%, respectively. This shift underscores the importance of diversification and innovation strategies in navigating evolving consumer preferences and market dynamics. As the demand for targeted treatments increases, focusing on these high-performing categories can help sustain overall market performance.

Figure 4: Global category performance by share and value sales growth - MAT Q3 2024. (Source: IQVIA Consumer Health Global OTC Insights)

4. Bionorica Stands Out in a Favorable Market

By the end of Q3 2024, eight of the top ten firms had outperformed the global CCR market, showcasing remarkable growth and resilience. Among these, Bionorica stood out with an impressive 10% increase in revenue, driven by its leading respiratory and decongestant brands such as Sinupret®, Bronchipret®, and Imupret®. This success is a testament to Bionorica’s commitment to innovation and quality in herbal medicinal products.

Figure 5: Top 10 OTC companies globally by share and growth - MAT Q3 2024. (Source: IQVIA Consumer Health Global OTC Insights)

5. What’s to come? US Flu Season Surges After Slow Start

Despite overall OTC sales in the North American market falling by 1.8% in MAT Q3 2024, there might be more positive news to come out of the remainder of the 2024/2025 cough, cold and flu season,

In the US, Q4 2024 continued to trend towards a sluggish cough, cold and flu season, primarily due to warmer weather in October and November, with Total Upper Respiratory Infections (URI) down by 5.3% year-over-year. While the affected population (AP) in 13 to 18 age group remained positive - ending up 14.2% over the previous year - the total adult segment saw a decline of 2.7%, and the pediatric segment was down by 9.2%, driven by significant declines in the 0 to 2 and 3 to 5 age groups.

Despite these declines, Q1 2025 started on a stronger note as the flu season kicked in towards the end of 2024, driving the AP above last season’s peak by 100K. ecent data indicates that flu levels have been soaring going into February, reaching the highest levels in over eight years. This surge, driven by a late start, has also increased total URI illnesses. The CDC reports that lab-confirmed flu cases are at a 15-year high. Although the highest weekly levels of affected population since COVID have been observed, the “weekly average affected population” remains the lowest since COVID due to the slow start. It is expected that flu cases will remain elevated over the next month but may fall quickly as seen in the 2017-2018 season.

Figure 3: Total ILI-2024/25 vs. Prior 8 Seasons & Most Recent 3 Seasons Average (Source: IQVIA FAN Program)

6. UK & Europe: Flu Season Peaks but Lingers On

In the UK and Europe, the flu season has reached its peak and is expected to decrease slowly, although it may linger until March. Q4 2024 in the UK has been more moderate compared to the US, where warmer weather significantly impacted the flu season. As we move forward, the affected population is expected to decline gradually, but the flu season might extend into late March, mirroring last year’s extended period.

7. Conclusion

As the global OTC market stabilizes, companies must adapt to the evolving landscape and aim that can be achieved with a focus on three key areas:

• Emphasizing innovation and diversification – this will help meet changing consumer demands.
• Optimizing operational efficiency – this will be crucial to navigate regional disparities and capitalize on growth opportunities.
• A commitment to quality and strategic reassessment - this will help drive success in a changing market, as shown by Bionorica’s impressive growth in 2024.

Additionally, staying agile and responsive to sudden market shifts, such as the unexpected surge in flu cases in the US, will be essential for maintaining resilience and capitalizing on emerging opportunities.

For more insights on the state of today’s OTC market contact the team consumer.health@iqvia.com or click the CONTACT US button on this page.