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With the World Health Organization’s declaration on May 5, 2023, of the end of the COVID-19 public health emergency, attention has shifted to the prevention and treatment of other communicable diseases as well as non-communicable diseases, and the critical contributions of medicines globally. Breakthrough therapies launched over the past decade for multiple diseases are re-shaping patient care in many areas and the outlook for medicines use – and the related Spending – through 2028 is higher than prior forecasts as more novel drugs become available and despite a significant downward revision of the outlook for COVID-19 vaccines and therapeutics.
The largest driver of medicine spending growth through the next five years is still expected to be the availability and use in developed markets of innovative therapeutics and offset by losses of exclusivity and the lower costs of generics and biosimilars. Traditionally, innovative medicine growth has occurred most in the years immediately following launch, whereas recent years and the forecast outlook show growth driven by older products. This mix of spending growth between volume-driven growth, and mix-driven changes in the cost of therapy are showing most geographies shifting to more expensive therapies, reflecting the broader availability and patient access to medicines with higher clinical value.
In this report, we quantify the impact of these dynamics and examine the spending and usage of medicines in 2023 and the outlook to 2028, globally and for specific therapy areas and countries. We intend for this report to provide an evidence-based foundation for meaningful discussion by all stakeholders about the value, cost, and role of medicines over the next five years in the context of overall healthcare spending.
Historical and projected use of medicines by region, 2018-2028, Defined Daily Doses (DDD) in billions
Comparison of current outlook to pre-COVID-19 outlook
Global spending and growth, US$Bn 2018-2028, excluding COVID-19 vaccines and therapeutics
Spending and volume growth by region
Global historic and forecast growth for top 20 therapy areas
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