Development of cell and gene therapies is among the most exciting innovations occurring in pharma research today. These treatments, which adapt a patient’s own genes and cells to treat inherited or acquired diseases, take personalized medicine to a new level.
As of 2019, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has approved 19 of these treatments for conditions ranging from large B-cell lymphoma, to inherited blindness, to the appearance of wrinkles in adults. Industry analysts predict the market for cell and gene therapies will surpass $11.96 billion by 2025.
However it is still early days, and these treatments face a number of unique obstacles that make accurate commercial forecasting a huge challenge:
This kind of limited engagement and variability in outcomes makes forecasting a lot more complicated. Longevity and loyalty become irrelevant factors in the forecasting process, and every time a patient successfully uses your treatment (or your competitor’s) the potential patient pool shrinks, changing the forecast equation.
Lack of historical data, complicated payment structures, and custom production means forecasters need more sophisticated data analysis tools and strategies to deliver accurate predictions for cell and gene therapies.
Commercial forecasting tools for this treatment category need to be able to handle an order of magnitude more detail than is usually used for forecasting pharmaceutical or biotech products. They should be able to combine inputs from epidemiology analysis, the patient journey, market access and reimbursement, as well as manufacturing and supply chain, to establish accurate revenue and profit forecasts.
These days, increasingly sophisticated forecasting platforms, such as IQVIA’s Forecast Horizon, are leveraging the power of cloud computing and machine learning (ML) tools to enable this level of analysis, supporting the greater complexity while reducing manual input and adjustment. When forecasters have access to a platform with this level of detail, streamlined with automation, they can accelerate the forecasting process, gain accuracy, and adjust results on a constant basis as the patient population, payer environment and competition evolves.
To learn more about our approach to forecasting, click here or contact us at ForecastHorizon@iqvia.com