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The Impact of GLP-1 Agonists on the MedTech Sector: Articulating a continued value proposition for devices
As the noise around GLP-1s and their potential impact on the MedTech sector intensifies, ensure your business has the right data and analytics to cut through the generalizations and reveal the complete picture for your business.
Dec 01, 2023
MedTech stocks continue to feel pressure from glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) drugs for obesity, based primarily on speculation, and despite strong third-quarter performances from many firms in this sector. Numerous analysts have said the GLP-1s are “very likely to disrupt certain areas of the MedTech industry,” while others say MedTech can “live side-by-side” with the weight-loss drugs.1 In fact, the impact of GLP-1s is likely to be more nuanced than the blunt conclusions drawn by market watchers, with some companies and segments affected more than others.
Although investor concerns about the MedTech Sector have been based on expected declines in obesity rates with the surging adoption of GLP-1s, IQVIA MedTech’s analysis of the data tells a different story, overall, that - to date - obesity diagnoses remain stable during the rise of GLP-1 uptake as depicted below:
As a result, the resilience of obesity diagnosis occurring despite the rising uptake of GLP-1s should serve as a positive general signal for MedTech industry players to counter investor concerns about the potential of reduced demand, or that the demand may be net-neutral, rather than a sudden decline.
Indeed, a recent analysis of a specific medical device market showed that while GLP-1 use is increasing overall, GLP-1 usage within the patient population of interest (those patients whose precursor conditions suggested they were candidates for a medical device) increased to only 12% of the cohort. Furthermore, device use within the GLP-1 using population declined only slightly, so that the overall impact on device use was less than 1%:
While GLP-1s have been available for over 20 years, what has captured analysts’ attention over the past quarter are the dramatic increases in the percentage of body weight lost. Results from recent trials have demonstrated notably greater reductions in body weight, as illustrated below in the SURMOUNT-3 Phase 3 trial with 25% weight reduction among subjects with GLP-1/GIP and engaged in intensive lifestyle intervention.
This dramatic increase in weight reduction capabilities naturally leads to speculation around additional health benefits for multiple conditions, including diabetes, cardiovascular, sleep apnea, and others for which medical devices and procedures are often part of management and treatment regimens. While the results of the trial are dramatic, the fact is that before all the noise around GLP-1s, it was known that even modest weight-loss improved obesity-related conditions and that this had had no negative impact on the MedTech market, as illustrated below.
Source: ADA Conference 2023
Despite these positive data points, it would be prudent to dive deeper and consider the potential impacts across multiple areas:
- Bariatric surgery: MedTech companies that make devices related to bariatric surgery for weight loss should anticipate that physicians will aim to exhaust non-surgical options. This will likely impact this market, but with the potential upside that BMI reductions due to GLP-1s may take more patients into the indicated weight range for bariatric devices.
- Orthopedics: Similarly, weight loss may reduce the wear and tear on joints or may qualify more patients for knee and hip replacements. People without obesity will continue to need joint replacements at the same rate as before.
- Cardiovascular devices: Evidence is mounting that GLP-1s can lower incidence of heart attacks and strokes. A recent example is the SELECT trial finding that Ozempic (semaglutide) reduced cardiovascular events by 20% in overweight or obese adults with established heart disease and without diabetes. 2The impact on cardiology practice remains to be seen, although typically conservative approaches make it likely that stents, pacemakers, and other devices will continue to be widely used.
- Diabetes: GLP-1s have been prescribed for diabetes for close to two decades, since the first U.S. Food and Drug Administration approval of such product, exenatide, in 2005. 3Devices such as continuous glucose monitors have built market share nonetheless,4 and are increasingly used by individuals with prediabetes.5
- Sleep apnea: Obesity is the main risk factor for obstructive sleep apnea, raising the possibility that weight loss may reduce incidence of this disorder, along with the need for continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) devices. 6Current evidence is limited, but trials are ongoing. 7However, future market development will depend on the patient journey, and which approaches payers are willing to reimburse first. The relationship between weight and sleep is complicated - poor sleep quality definitely impacts weight loss and gain, and there is a need for trials in this space to better assess the potential impact.
Making sense of dynamic market shifts
MedTech companies are already considering how best to articulate the continued value of their products – to audiences including regulators, physicians, payers, and analysts. A crucial step is to understand the company’s target patient populations through the lens of GLP-1 use.
Creating the correct lens will take a combination of different of services to give a true picture, and it will not be a one size fits all approach – starting with a comprehensive set of data assets, including prescription data, claims data, longitudinal prescription data (LRx), and services such as IQVIA’s LAAD and MIDAS data.
Various analytical approaches will then be required to address specific business questions - including longitudinal analyses of GLP-1 patients vs. procedure data or device delay, correlation between GLP-1s and other disease areas, patient journeys and primary research – to generate the key insights needed so MedTech companies can plan and strategize with confidence. This work can be further enhanced with prospective real-world evidence (RWE) non-interventional studies to support payer conversations and publication plans.
By developing this in-depth understanding of the impacts of the GLP-1s on patient populations, treatment paradigms and clinician messaging, MedTech companies will be able to make informed strategic decisions to stay the course or pivot to other promising segments if needed. Based on more accurate forecasting of trends and opportunities in their specific markets, firms will be in a strong position to communicate the true value of their product portfolios.
IQVIA MedTech is uniquely positioned to give immediate insights into the dynamics of GLP-1 markets and patient profiles at the global, national, and regional levels, coupled with deep market expertise needed to uncover the vital insights needed. Complete this form to find out more.
References
1 https://www.medtechdive.com/news/medtech-glp-1-obesity-drugs-fear-stocks/696515/#:~:text=The%20analysts%20think%20medtech%20“can,suffer%20through%202024%20and%202025.
2 https://newsroom.clevelandclinic.org/2023/11/11/international-clinical-trial-finds-that-semaglutide-reduced-cardiovascular-events-by-20-in-adults-with-overweight-or-obesity-who-dont-have-diabetes/
3 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK572151/
4 https://www.precedenceresearch.com/continuous-glucose-monitoring-device-market#:~:text=The%20global%20continuous%20glucose%20monitoring,forecast%20period%202023%20to%202032.
5 https://www.healthline.com/health-news/continuous-glucose-monitors-cgms-may-diagnose-prediabetes-earlier-than-blood-sugar-tests
6 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/resp.14545
7 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/resp.14545
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